‘The Map Is Not Great’: Chris Cillizza Says Even If Trump Tariffs Massively ‘Backfire,’ Dems’ Senate Hopes Are Slim

Former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza said Friday that even if President Donald Trump’s tariffs cause significant damage, Democrats still have dismal odds of retaking the Senate in 2026.

U.S. stocksplunged Thursday and Friday after Trump on Wednesday unveiled a slate of tariffs on the world. A viewer asked Cillizza on his livestream about whether “the tariffs backfir as badly as some economists are saying they could” might provide Democrats with the chance to win the Senate, but the former CNN analyst explained why that would be unlikely.

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“They need to net four seats, okay, because JD Vance is the vice president, president of the Senate breaks ties, so you got to have a clear majority if you’re Democrats. You can have 51 seats. There are 22 Republican seats up to 13 Democratic seats. Of those 22, 21 of them are in states that Donald Trump won last November so it’s not a great playing field,” Cillizza said. “The only one that’s in a state Kamala Harris won is in Maine, Susan Collins, and she’s going to be a huge target. So the problem becomes, it’s like you have to fish in waters that are not super friendly to your party.”

“So like, one example, North Carolina. Thom Tillis is running. I could see that being a real race because I think Roy Cooper, the popular former Democratic governor, is probably going to run. So I think that that’s a race. It is a state Trump won, but that’s a real race,” he continued. “It starts to get dicier after that. Remember, they need four. So let’s assume they don’t lose any of their own, which, look, Georgia is going to be a big race for Democrats, so is Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire maybe, but Georgia and Michigan are going to be huge, huge races that they’d have to hold.”