‘The Race Is Literally Closer Than a Coin Flip,’ Polling Guru Says
Election Day is underway — and polling guru Nate Silver’s prediction shows the election is “closer than a coin flip.” “When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to…
Election Day is underway — and polling guru Nate Silver’s prediction shows the election is “closer than a coin flip.”
“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating,” Silver wrote in his final posts on the 2024 Election.
Silver ran 80,000 simulations, which resulted in Vice President Kamala Harris winning the Electoral College in 40,012 of them, or 50.015%. Former President Donald Trump (39,988) and no majority split the remaining.
“From the model’s standpoint, though, the race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent,” Silver wrote.
As Politico writes:
“Never in modern political history has there been so much uncertainty heading into Election Day — with such a wide array of possible outcomes.”