Unknown Bettor Reportedly Won Over $400,000 Betting on Maduro’s Removal

A mysterious online bettor made over $400,000 on a website called Polymarket by correctly predicting that the U.S. would invade Venezuela and remove President Nicolás Maduro from power. The surprising win has raised questions about whether the person had inside information about a classified military operation.

Polymarket is an online betting platform where users wager cryptocurrency on real-world events. These events can range from political elections to international conflicts. The website does not require users to share personal information with each other, and transactions are recorded on a public blockchain.

The account in question placed 13 bets between December 27 and January 3. All of them focused on a potential U.S. operation in Venezuela and whether Maduro would still be in power by the end of January. According to public records, the total amount wagered was about $33,934.34. The account made its largest bet—over $14,000—on Friday night, just hours before the public learned that U.S. forces had carried out a special mission to capture Maduro and his wife.

Early Saturday morning, the U.S. military confirmed that the pair had been extradited to the U.S., where Maduro now faces narco-terrorism charges. The mission was reportedly authorized by President Donald Trump before Christmas, but officials say the exact timing wasn’t widely known even within the Pentagon until late Friday.

That same night, the online bettor made the final and largest investment in the prediction market, earning over $400,000 once the outcome was confirmed. The identity of the bettor has not been revealed, but analysts say the person has already cashed out the winnings through a major American cryptocurrency exchange, using Solana.

A spokesperson for the blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis said the person did not appear to take steps to hide or launder the money, which could make it easier for regulators or law enforcement to identify them if an investigation is opened.

Four other Polymarket accounts also placed bets related to Maduro’s removal between Thursday and Saturday, with each earning between $7,000 and $14,000. However, these bets were smaller, ranging from $700 to $900. It’s unknown whether those users had access to any nonpublic information or were simply making educated guesses.