Beijing Tightens Grip On South China Sea As Uncle Sam’s Eyes Gaze Toward Middle East
China's ambassador suggested his country could easily overpower the Philippines, a key U.S. treaty ally, reflecting an increasingly aggressive Chinese push to flex authority over the hotly disputed waters of the South China Sea.
Francis Kapper·Oct 20, 2026·8 min read
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China’s ambassador suggested his country could easily overpower the Philippines, a key U.S. treaty ally, reflecting an increasingly aggressive Chinese push to flex authority over the hotly disputed waters of the South China Sea.
The Philippines summoned Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan on Monday to protest his remarks, amid mounting military tensions throughout the Indo-Pacific, according to local Filipino news agency TV5 News. The confrontation unfolds as the U.S. military diverts warships to the Middle East and burns through critical missile stockpiles fighting Iran, according toUSNI News and theCenter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
China “may easily win” a confrontation with the Philippines, Jing told reporters Thursday, although he maintained Beijing would not resort to military force because “we love peace,” according toTV5 News.
“I do not believe China is well positioned to capitalize on our distraction in the short term, but it will take years, perhaps decades, to restore our munitions stockpiles, so it has plenty of time,” Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program and co-director of its Wargaming Lab, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “We must recall that, even if we were to restore our stockpiles to where they are now ten years hence, that would not put us on track to where we planned to be ten years from now. It would put us back to today’s inventories.”
“The United States-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty covers armed attacks against Philippine forces anywhere in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea,” a White House official told the DCNF. “The United States will continue to strengthen our alliance with the Philippines and uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
The Chinese Embassy and the Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding regional security and reaffirms Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the Pacific,” a State Department spokesperson told the DCNF.
“We appreciate the statements and support from the United States in condemning bad actors of their illegal occupation and activities in Philippine waters as the Philippines continues to assert its sovereign rights and champion our legitimate rights under UNCLOS,” the Philippine Embassy in Washington told the DCNF. “Both countries continue to engage in regular dialogue and coordination on matters of mutual concern, including regional security and the fulfillment of our respective commitments.”
“China is certainly taking advantage of the situation,” James R. Holmes, the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, told the DCNF. “Over the decades, Beijing has perfected the art of acting in its home region when the United States is doing things elsewhere on the globe or visibly has no interest in intervening in the region. One of my go-to examples is 1974, when the United States had pulled out of Vietnam and clearly was not going to return. So China’s military seized some of the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam on the eve of South Vietnam’s downfall.”
Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro condemned the Chinese ambassador’s remarks as “provocative and unacceptable,” warning that they worsened already strained relations between the two countries, according to thePhilippine Department of Foreign Affairs.
“China’s ambassador to the Philippines, Jing Quan, did what any good ambassador would do,” Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and former senior economist on President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, told the DCNF. “He launched a warning shot across the bow by telling the Philippines that it would get its clock cleaned if it continues to cross China’s red lines.”
“The audience is not Washington alone,” Yao-Yuan Yeh, a political science professor and director of the Taiwan and East Asia Studies Program at the University of St. Thomas, told the DCNF. “Beijing also wants Manila and Taipei to question whether American support will remain dependable in a crisis.”
Beijing defended its ambassador, accusing Philippine politicians of attacking China and damaging bilateral relations. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning urged Manila to restrain the politicians’ behavior during an Oct. 19press briefing.
“China is happy to see us send attention elsewhere, but they are paying a price with lost oil access due to our taking down Iran and its proxies,” Steven Bucci, a retired Army colonel and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “After being embarrassed by the impotence of Chinese tech to aid Iran, they are not likely to decide to push things in the near or midterm.”
China has also increased its naval activity near Taiwan and the Philippines.
The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning conducted approximately 10 aircraft takeoffs and landings in the Philippine Sea on Oct. 14 before sailing toward the South China Sea the following day, according to Japan’sJoint Staff Office. Beijing maintained the deployment was routine training and not directed against another country.
“China routinely tests the response of U.S. allies like Taiwan and the Philippines, but the rate and intensity of this testing appears to be increasing,” Matthew Wallin, CEO of the American Security Project, told the DCNF. “Recently, Taiwan complained of an ‘unusually large’ flotilla of Chinese ships conducting harassment operations. These included a number of fishing and ‘research’ vessels conducting operations in or around Taiwan’s waters.”
Japanese fighter jets scrambled in response to repeated Chinese military intelligence aircraft flights over the East China Sea between October 13 and 15, according to Japan’s Joint Staff Office.
Dwindling Weapon Stockpiles
Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has committed substantial naval assets to the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The USS George Washington, normally stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, was operating in the Arabian Sea alongside the Japan-based destroyer USS Shoup in support of strikes against Iran. The USS George H.W. Bush and its carrier strike group were also operating in the Arabian Sea,USNI News reported Oct. 13.
Beyond the movement of American warships, the Iran War has severely depleted critical U.S. missile inventories.
American forces had expended approximately half their initial inventories of Patriot air defense missiles, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and Precision Strike Missiles by July, according to aCSIS assessment. Roughly one-third of initial inventories for Tomahawk cruise missiles, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles and several naval Standard Missiles had also been expended.
“The War weakens America’s deterrence against China in very significant ways,” Heginbotham told the DCNF. “The pace of operations has diverted resources to the Middle East and has imposed very significant wear and tear on major assets, especially naval ships but also aircraft. Much more significant, however, is the massive expenditure of munitions that are precisely those that we would depend on in a conflict with China.”
“China is most certainly studying carefully our actions re Iran, including the larger diplomatic/geopolitical actions and most definitely our military operations, the underlying technology of such, and most definitely our industrial base and how it is responding to surge requirements,” Christopher Lay, a former Reagan-era Pentagon policy aide, told the DCNF.
However, not all experts were concerned about the munitions drawdown from the Iran War.
“This is wishful thinking by China and anyone thinking we can only deal with one crisis at a time,” Bucci told the DCNF.
“My assessment is that American deterrence against China remains strong,” Yeh told the DCNF. “The Iran war may make it seem that Washington is distracted, but U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific have continued strengthening deterrence through advanced capabilities, joint exercises, and closer operational coordination with allies.”
A separate July assessment estimated that fewer than 1,000 Patriot interceptors and approximately 250 THAAD interceptors remained available, CSIS reported.
Replenishing Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot stocks to prewar levels would require three to five years under projected delivery schedules, according toCSIS.
Nevertheless, the United States continues to demonstrate military strength in the Pacific.
Approximately 12,000 American service members joined 45,000 Japanese troops Monday for Keen Sword 27, a major exercise focused on defending Japan’s southwestern islands near Taiwan. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is participating in the exercise, which includes advanced missile systems and amphibious operations,The Associated Press reported.
The United States and the Philippines also conducted joint maritime operations in the South China Sea on October 14, according to theU.S. Navy.
“Any conflict with China is going to expend munitions and possibly lives and equipment at a rate we have not seen in decades, and China is likely counting on that due to its numerical advantages,” Wallin told the DCNF. “We are lucky that China hasn’t taken full advantage of our current distraction , likely because China is not truly ready for an invasion, and it is likely rethinking strategy as the War in Ukraine has illuminated a variety of vulnerabilities challenging the wisdom of a conventional military invasion.”
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