Expert Changes His Senate Map Forecast

A leading nonpartisan political handicapper moved three Senate races in the Democrats’ direction Thursday, saying the party now has a “clearer path” to winning back the Senate majority with just under five months left before the midterm elections.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, made the rating changes while still cautioning that Republicans remain favored overall to hold the chamber.

“We still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate,” the group wrote.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but the party is facing a tougher political environment heading into the midterms. The president’s party often loses seats in midterm elections, and Republicans are also dealing with voter concerns about the economy, persistent inflation, rising gas prices, the political fallout from the war with Iran, and President Donald Trump’s weak approval numbers.

The most notable shift came in North Carolina, where Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from toss-up to lean Democrat. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running against former Republican National Committee Chair Mike Whatley for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

The group also moved Alaska’s Senate race from lean Republican to toss-up. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is expected to face former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who previously won statewide in Alaska and remains one of the best-known Democrats in the state.

Ohio also shifted toward Democrats. That race, between appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, moved from lean Republican to toss-up. The change came about a week after a Fox News poll showed Brown leading Husted 53 percent to 45 percent.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain control of the Senate after losing the majority in the 2024 elections. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said its latest ratings now leave enough competitive races on the board to give Democrats a more realistic route to the majority.

“There are now enough Toss-up races to give Democrats a clearer path to winning the Senate majority,” the group wrote.