JD FOSTER: A Fragile Ceasefire Carries Huge Hopes
The Iran war ceasefire is as fragile as a spring snowflake. Circumstances may have changed substantially by the time you read this. Yet some observations will likely survive. Most immediately, everything is conditional…
The Iran war ceasefire is as fragile as a spring snowflake. Circumstances may have changed substantially by the time you read this. Yet some observations will likely survive.
Most immediately, everything is conditional. Asking what happens next can only receive a response of, “It depends.”
For example, Hezbollah, one of Iran’s wilting proxies, attacked Israel. Israel is responding. How does Iran respond to Israel’s response? The war –and the ceasefire — has been between the Iranians on one side and the United States plus Israel on the other.
In Iran’s view, does fighting between Israel and Hezbollah violate the ceasefire enough to cancel it?
All sides need the ceasefire to hold. From President Donald Trump’s perspective, he saw an Iran bent on someday threatening the United States with nuclear-tipped long-range ballistic missiles. Would that someday come soon or next year or the year after? Whatever the answer, the result would be intolerable.
Iran was already badly weakened, so circumstances were ripe for decisive action, and Trump took it. From the start of the war to Monday’s ceasefire, American forces blew up everything worth destroying. Airfields. Missile storage sites. The Iranian Navy. Anything associated with Iran’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. Anything relevant to Iran’s military-industrial complex.
Meanwhile, Israel took on the mission of killing off Iran’s political and military leadership. In this, Israel was incredibly thorough. Yet Iran responded the way a sports team responds when a starter goes down. “Next man up.”
Trump said the purpose of Operation Epic Fury was to destroy Iran’s ability to strike at the American homeland while dramatically curtailing its ability to export terrorism. Explicit regime change was a hope but never a goal. If, somehow, the regime fell under the awesome barrage of bombs and missiles, so much the better, but it hasn’t happened.
At this point, the legitimate military targets appropriate to Epic Fury’s purpose are few. This is why Trump threatened to escalate, extending the attacks to civilian targets like bridges and powerplants and more. He threatened to destroy the Iranian civilization if the regime didn’t come to heel.