JD FOSTER: How Republicans Can Break History And Hold On To House

Conventional wisdom says Republicans will lose the House in the 2026 mid-term elections. With a two-seat majority, conventional wisdom may be right, but history, crossovers and nuts suggest Republicans might hold Democrats at bay.

Over the last half century, the party in the White House typically lost an average of 22 House seats in the mid-terms, but those 12 mid-terms present three distinct groupings. For example, in 2002 Republicans gained 8 seats after President George W. Bush crushed the Taliban in Afghanistan.

On five occasions, the mid-terms produced wave elections, inflicting on the president’s party an average 44-seat loss. Even a little wave would sweep the Republicans out.

For now, the most likely outcome is a non-wave, non-war mid-term, or a base case election producing a 9-seat Republican loss. Democrats would then gain House control, but two other factors are in play to offset that history.

The Cook Political Report ranked 39 Democrat-held seats as “competitive” compared to only 29 for Republicans. Further, Donald Trump won 13 seats won by Democrats in 2024, while Kamala Harris won only three seats claimed by Republicans.

Either metric, competitive seats or crossover voters, suggests an uphill climb for Democrats.

The Republicans’ ace-in-the-hole, of course, is the Democrats. A focused Democratic party would pose a grave threat to Republicans’ chances. Instead, as even some Democrats have observed, Democrats are superglue-stuck on stupid, each seeming to compete to be the most obnoxious clown on camera. Virginia Senator Mark Warner displayed his talent for understatement when he observed