JESSICA ANDERSON: How Republicans Could Win Big In 2026

The biggest question facing get-out-the-vote organizations like mine is: How do Republicans win in November when President Donald Trump is not on the ballot? To answer that question, we went straight to the voters whose votes will determine the midterms in battleground states. Proving the point that while Trump himself is not on the ballot, his policy agenda certainly is.

We’ve spent the last few weeks in focus groups talking to key low-propensity Trump voters and swing voters in the Senate battleground states of Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire. In nearly all of these states, both voting groups must turn out for the Republican candidate if the GOP is to defend and grow the Senate majority. What connects these groups, we now understand, is a clear, economy-centric message. However, how these voters view “progress” and whether enough is being done varies greatly between both groups, which will require tailored and specific ground game outreach as we seek to build a winning coalition.

What we found is that low-propensity Trump voters continue to be behind Trump’s agenda, and they remain optimistic to support Republican candidates who will continue the progress this administration has made over the past year. They want a functioning Congress that will work collaboratively with Trump — not an obstructionist minority that will waste time with impeachment trials and squander this opportunity to save America.

Both groups of voters believe the Trump administration is still just starting a four-year turn-around for America. They back Trump’s long-term vision for America; a strong nation with secure borders that is an economic and industrial powerhouse — more jobs for Americans and less dependence on adversaries like China. As voters express approval for Trump’s policies, they also acknowledge the continued hardships created by Biden’s long term economic failures: unaffordable housing, stagnant wage growth, and higher prices.

Point blank, these voters repeatedly emphasized that they trust the plan but see additional opportunities for short-term policy wins to make their lives more affordable.

For most Americans, the simplest and best policy really is to let them hold onto more of their own money. Voters were just starting to file their tax returns and had not yet received their refunds but were hopeful it would help offset the price increases of Biden’s presidency. Good news for these voters — as of Feb. 6,