Left-Wing Democrat Aftyn Behn In Striking Distance Of Winning In Trump Country, Poll Shows

A hotly-contested House race for a heavily Republican seat in Tennessee is in a dead heat less than one week out from election day, according to new polling.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Wednesday found Republican candidate Matt Van Epps leading Democratic Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn by two percentage points — 46% to 48% — with 5% of likely voters undecided. Van Epps’s paltry lead within the poll’s 3.9% margin of error, is likely to give Republicans’ heartburn ahead of the Dec. 2 special election, which could have unpredictable results due to low turnout.

When the pollster asked undecided to back the candidate they were leaning toward, Van Epps registered 49% support while Behn drew 47% support.

President Donald Trump notably won the sprawling central Tennessee district that stretches from Kentucky to Alabama and incorporates part of downtown Nashville by 22 points in 2024.

Though Van Epps is favored to win the solidly Republican district, the timing of the special election — the Tuesday after Thanksgiving — could affect turnout and potentially give Behn an opening.

“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said in a statement accompanying the poll. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%.”

“Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70,” Kimball continued.