Prediction Markets, Casinos In Lobbying Duel Over Industries Rife With Consumer Debt, Addiction Issues

Prediction markets quarreled with casinos as both increased lobbying spending on Congress ahead of the midterm elections.

Kalshi, Polymarket, casino and gaming sectors spent money on lobbying in an attempt to win  lawmakers’ support while prediction markets came under scrutiny over risks involving insider trading and unlicensed state gambling. The industry spent more on lobbying while gambling addiction issues have been on the rise, particularly among young men.

In a letter to Congress in January, thegambling industry argued that prediction markets are “indistinguishable from legal sports betting” and should be subject to gambling laws and taxes. The American Gaming Association (AGA), a gambling industry lobbying group, argued its state tax revenue declined because bets were made on prediction markets, while the predication markets argued its markets are not subject to gambling taxes.

Users of prediction markets have commonly found themselves in debt, and became clinically addicted to betting and gambling online.

Online gambling addiction rates are much higher than in-person gambling, as roughly 16% of internet gamblers have been classified as problem gamblers, according to the National Library of Medicine. About 10% of U.S. men aged 18 to 30 showed behavior indicating a gambling addiction, according to Hopkins Bloomberg Public Health.

Fifty-one percent of prediction market users have borrowed funds to place bets, according to a study by BadCredit.org. The study found that 79% of users reported losses over the past year.

Kalshi’s lobbying totaled about $1.8 million in the first half of 2026, as the company spent $990,000 and the rest was spent through outside firms, according to CNBC. Kalshi spent $1 million total on lobbying in all of 2025, according to CNBC. That was Kalshi’s highest six-month lobbying total on record.

Lobbying firm Advocus Partners spent $180,000 on behalf of Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, in that same timeframe, according to CNBC.

Kalshi and Polymarket were fighting U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) rules, state bans and sports and election contract limits.

The gambling and casino industry lobbied in the opposite direction to fight the rise of prediction markets. The AGA spent $1.39 million on lobbying efforts, while Cherokee Nation spent $600,000, CNBC reported

Polymarket’s parent company, Blockratize Inc., donated $1 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, which supports House Republicans, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) records. It gave $10,000 to V-PAC / Victors, Not Victims, a super PAC affiliated with Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Kalshi’s co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, gave about $1 million combined to candidates of both parties, according to FEC records. They gave roughly $615,000 to Republican candidates and $377,000 to Democrats.

Mansour supported a bill in May to ban members from insider trading, saying it was a good approach to ensuring that the “markets are fair and transparent.”

After a series of trades were made ahead of U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran, Kalshi stepped up its presence on Capitol Hill, according to CNBC. U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged with insider trading for allegedly making over $400,000 by betting on the military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after he helped lead and execute the raid.

Van Dyke allegedly placed 13 wagers totaling roughly $33,000 to $34,000 on Polymarket, betting that the U.S. would capture Maduro and he would be removed from power.

“Kalshi already bans insider trading and markets directly tied to death and war. As a regulated US-based exchange, we support regulators and policymakers from both sides of the aisle in their efforts to keep these markets safe and responsible in America,” a Kalshi spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Polymarket did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

Users of Kalshi and Polymarket wagered $197 million on midterm election results as of July 10, according to NBC News. Young adults between ages 18 and 21 traded an estimated $5.4 billion on all categories while using Kalshi, which raised concerns among lawmakers and consumer advocates about young adults’ finances and mental health, CNN reported Friday.

The Senate unanimously passed a rules resolution on April 30 to bar senators, their staff and officers from betting on prediction markets. Republican Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who sponsored the resolution, argued that Americans needed to know that elected officials were in office “for the right reason.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on the House to push for a similar measure.

While prediction market companies have relied on lobbying, the sports betting industry spent roughly $76 million on the midterm elections. Companies such as DraftKings and FanDuel gave money to super PACs.

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