STEVE CORTES: Polls Reveal The Emerging Trump Coalition

Will Hispanics and young voters help propel former President Donald Trump to a second term in the White House? New polling suggests so, strongly.

But first some background on the larger macro shifts in the electorate and party identification: Bigger picture, the populist-nationalist revolt continues to reshape politics in America in ways that are systemic and, likely, generational. This political tectonic shift is transforming the Republican Party into a party of workers, claiming whole demographic groups that were formerly considered the political provenance of the Democrats.

For example, polling from the American Enterprise Institute shows that by 2020 white American households with a union member became just as likely to identify as Republican as Democrat — for the first time ever. In fact, as recently as the year 2000, the Democrats still had a 26-point margin of preference in such households (43% to 17%).

But, not coincidentally, the Washington uniparty welcomed China fully into the World Trade Organization in 2001 on terms that were incredibly generous to the Beijing regime and utterly devastating to American workers, especially blue-collar laborers. Since that time, working-class voters have gravitated toward the anti-establishment, populist wing of the Republican Party.

Then, starting with the Tea Party movement and crystalizing in the Trump 2016 campaign, this cohort of forgotten Americans rallied fiercely to the America First cause. Now, in the 2024 election season, as detailed in the most recent polling of key battleground states, the Trump coalition is broadening even more and attracting groups that were formerly taken for granted by the Democrats.

In Arizona, specifically, the massive political realignment of Hispanics and young Americans looks poised to not only send Trump back to the Oval Office, but also to form anti-establishment politics in lasting ways. In a just-completed June survey