Truckers Don’t Stick Around For Long With Employers. Here’s Why.
The trucking industry has warned for years that America is running out of drivers, but federal research and industry turnover data suggest the problem may have less to do with finding truckers than keeping them behind the wheel.
Jack McGeever·Sep 18, 2026·6 min read
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The trucking industry has warned for years that America is running out of drivers, but federal research and industry turnover data suggest the problem may have less to do with finding truckers than keeping them behind the wheel.
Large long-haul truckload carriers have historically cycled through nearly their entire driver workforce each year, with researchers pointing to pay, long hours, time away from home and working conditions as factors behind the churn. Independent owner-operators complicate the picture further because some drivers leave carriers to work for themselves rather than leave trucking altogether, meaning carrier turnover does not necessarily equal workers exiting the industry.
“No, the trucking industry is not currently experiencing the widespread driver shortage like it did during the pandemic,” American Trucking Associations (ATA) Chief Economist Bob Costello told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The market has changed considerably.”
The ATA estimated in a 2021 report that the industry was short 80,000 drivers that year and projected the figure would reach 123,000 in 2026 and 161,000 by 2030. The trade group estimated trucking would need nearly 1 million new drivers between 2021 and 2030 because of retirements, industry growth and drivers leaving the 💼Business.
Federal labor research, however, previously challenged the idea that trucking suffered from a persistent, industry-wide shortage.
A 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis found the overall truck-driver labor market generally functioned similarly to other blue-collar labor markets and that driver supply responded to changes in earnings. Researchers concluded that a deeper examination did not show evidence of a long-term shortage, while identifying severe turnover concentrated among long-distance truckload carriers.
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Truckers Don’t Stick Around For Long With Employers. Here’s Why. — IJR
The same BLS study, using ATA carrier data, found annual turnover averaged 94% at large long-distance truckload carriers between 1995 and 2017. Small truckload carriers averaged 79.2%, compared with just 11.7% among less-than-truckload carriers.
The figures do not capture every way drivers participate in the industry. About 7% of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers were self-employed in 2025, according to the latest BLS data, while 40% worked in the truck transportation industry.
Some long-haul drivers become owner-operators, buying or leasing their own trucks and going into 💼Business for themselves, according to BLS. A driver leaving a large carrier could therefore remain behind the wheel rather than leave trucking entirely.
Independent drivers face their own retention pressures. Owner-operators can depend on volatile spot freight markets and brokers to find loads while absorbing expenses such as fuel and maintenance, according to an Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) report. OOIDA also identified some lease-purchase arrangements, in which drivers lease trucks from carriers while operating as independent contractors, as another potential source of financial pressure.
“From our perspective, that’s clearly a retention problem,” George O’Connor, a spokesman for OOIDA, told the DCNF.
OOIDA has pointed to more than 400,000 new commercial driver’s licenses being issued annually while arguing that high turnover, rather than an insufficient number of potential drivers, is the industry’s underlying problem.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine also examined the issue and found traditional economic principles did not support assertions of a persistent shortage in long-distance truckload trucking. The report instead pointed to irregular schedules, long hours, limited time at home and moderate pay as factors conducive to high turnover.
Costello disputed the idea that turnover itself demonstrates there was no shortage, arguing that turnover can rise precisely when carriers are competing aggressively for scarce qualified drivers.
“During the pandemic, freight demand surged while driver-training schools closed, retirements accelerated, and fleets competed intensely for available talent,” Costello told the DCNF. “Driver pay rose rapidly, signing bonuses became common, and drivers had more opportunities to move from one carrier to another.”
“High turnover often reflects competition among carriers for the same pool of qualified drivers,” Costello added.
The ATA now says softer freight demand means carriers no longer face the same widespread shortage, but Costello said the industry’s current problem is finding drivers who satisfy safety and professional standards.
“That is what the discussion has always been about: not simply the number of people holding CDLs, but the availability of safe, qualified drivers,” Costello said.
Gord Magill, a trucker and writer who has criticized the industry’s shortage narrative, similarly distinguished between the total number of drivers and the supply of experienced operators.
“There is not and never has been a shortage of truck drivers in the United States,” Magill told the DCNF, arguing the industry instead developed a persistent retention problem after trucking deregulation.
Magill said the churn among entry-level drivers eventually creates a different problem: too few remain in trucking long enough to develop the experience necessary to haul specialized freight.
“The fake claim of a truck driver shortage that’s been going around for decades has created a real shortage of high quality, competent, highly experienced truck drivers,” Magill said.
Those experienced drivers are needed for specialized work including hauling hazardous materials, oversized loads, livestock and logs, Magill said.
Driver detention — time truckers spend waiting at warehouses, factories and other facilities to load or unload — may also contribute to the retention problem.
A Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration review cited previous research finding detention reduced annual earnings for for-hire truckload drivers by more than $1 billion. The agency also cited research associating longer dwell times with higher crash rates.
“Compensation and detention time can certainly affect retention,” Costello told the DCNF. “Competitive pay matters, and excessive detention wastes a driver’s time, reduces productivity, and can create frustration.”
Costello said freight conditions, routes, time at home, workplace culture and competing job opportunities also influence whether drivers stay with a carrier.
Truckers occupy an unusual position under federal wage law. The Fair Labor Standards Act’s Motor Carrier Exemption generally exempts qualifying interstate truck drivers and certain other motor-carrier employees from the law’s federal overtime-pay requirement.
O’Connor said improving compensation and working conditions could help experienced drivers remain in the industry, pointing to overtime protections and even access to restrooms at shipping and receiving facilities as quality-of-life issues facing drivers.
The consequences of turnover may extend beyond carriers’ recruiting costs, O’Connor said. Experienced drivers accumulate more training and miles behind the wheel, while constantly replacing departing workers means repeatedly putting inexperienced drivers into commercial vehicles weighing as much as 80,000 pounds.
“The safest drivers are the ones who are the most experienced, and who stick around the longest,” O’Connor told the DCNF.
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