What Happened To These Energy ‘Expert’s’ Predictions?

When I was younger and a little more wide-eyed, there was one job I always thought sounded perfect: weather anchor.

The reason was simple. Outside of NFL Draft analysis, how many jobs let you be wrong that often and still keep showing up on television as if nothing happened?

As it turns out, I might have been aiming too low. I could have just become an “expert” during the Donald Trump era.

Politico published a piece Tuesday with the headline, “Energy experts said gas prices would stay high. Why were they wrong?”

The article is about what you would expect from that headline. It asks why so many energy experts missed the mark when predicting the long-term damage from rising fuel prices under Trump.

As most Americans heard, and many felt directly, gas prices jumped during the worst stretch of the Iran conflict. The assumption from plenty of analysts was that those prices would stay painful for a while. Except they didn’t.

Instead, prices have been falling fast, undercutting predictions of a long summer defined by expensive gas and economic strain.

Funny how that keeps happening.

Politico put the reality plainly: “Instead of spiraling upward, the average price at the pump has plummeted 70 cents per gallon in a month from a peak of $4.56.”

To its credit, Politico at least acknowledged that it had helped circulate those earlier predictions. The outlet noted that experts had warned of $150-a-barrel oil, $5 gasoline, and even possible summer recessions, and that those forecasts were widely quoted in the media, including by Politico itself.

One oil analyst told the outlet, “It’s the weirdest thing. I’ve never seen a market like this.”

Now, I am not going to pretend I’m qualified to explain every assumption behind those forecasts. Energy markets are complicated. Global conflict, supply chains, production decisions, investor behavior, and consumer demand can all shift quickly. Even smart people can get caught leaning the wrong way.