ASML raises outlook on AI demand exceeding capacity through 2028

ASML Holding N.V. told investors on Wednesday that customer demand for its machines already exceeds the capacity it can deliver through 2028. Christophe Fouquet’s comments hit the wire on October 14, 2026, as the company posted third-quarter figures and raised its full-year outlook. Europe’s most valuable listed technology company, valued at about €586 billion, or roughly $657 billion, saw its stock climb as much as 3.6 percent.

“Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments,” the chief executive said.

Net sales for the third quarter of 2026 reached €11.66 billion. The figure sat just under the €11.72 billion analysts had expected, yet climbed from the €9.33 billion of the previous quarter. Net profit hit €4.96 billion, clearing the €4.05 billion to €4.1 billion range the street had looked for and nearly doubling the €2.92 billion booked three months earlier. Gross margin improved to 57.5 percent from 54 percent.

Those results let ASML lift its full-year 2026 net sales forecast to €44 billion–€45 billion. The earlier range had stretched from €43 billion to €45 billion; only the floor moved higher. For the fourth quarter the company guided sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion and a gross margin of around 57 percent.

Marc Hesselink, an analyst at ING, said the earnings had surpassed expectations and that he expected consensus forecasts through 2028 to be revised higher. “Management’s commentary on demand visibility and capacity … was again very constructive,” he said.

In July 2026 ASML had forecast capacity increases of 30 percent in 2027 and 30 percent again in 2028. Fouquet said it was clear that would not be enough. The supply planned for those two years would not fully meet customer demand. Customers were already seeking more capacity than the company could deliver across both years, and ASML was investigating ways to expand 2028 capacity beyond the prior 30 percent plan.

The artificial intelligence boom and the rapid expansion of data centers were driving the orders. Customers were discussing bookings past 2027. “In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030,” Fouquet said. He reported “a lot of order intake for 2028. But also some strong interest to already place orders for 2029 and sometimes even 2030.”

ASML is the only company that manufactures extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the tools required to produce the most advanced semiconductor chips. Photolithography transfers circuit patterns onto silicon wafers; EUV does the job with light at a wavelength of 13.5 nanometers, short enough to draw features that longer-wavelength systems cannot resolve. Every producer pushing the newest nodes depends on that light. Only one firm supplies it.

The customers pressing for more of those machines include TSMC, which manufactures chips for Nvidia, along with Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix and Micron. All of them have expansion plans under way. The newest name on the list is TeraFab. On the call with reporters after the results, chief financial officer Roger Dassen would not size the opening. ASML was “still kicking the tyres on the exact size of that (TeraFab) opportunity,” he said.

Technology stocks rebounded from Tuesday’s global chip selloff, the slide that had followed reports of advances by a Chinese chipmaker. ASML lifted the European tech index. The DAX and EuroStoxx50 each rose around half a percent on Wednesday, to 25,395 and 6,204. The STOXX 600 advanced 0.32 percent to 636.99 by 0713 GMT, later prints showing a 0.48 percent gain to 638.07. ASML stock had gained nearly 70 percent since the start of the year.

“There were concerns that the AI trade was running out of steam,” said Gordon Kerr, European macro strategist at KBRA. The same results left him with the plain reading that “demand for chips remains strong, and infrastructure spending is likely to continue well into 2027.” Nick Rossolillo of Chip Stock Investor, which holds the shares, saw the tight supply as a buffer rather than a flaw. “Staying capacity constrained protects the business and gives a bit of cushion for when there are inevitable years of soft customer order activity,” he said, pointing to the 2028–2029 window after several new customer plants finish.

ASML broke ground last month on a major expansion in Eindhoven, Netherlands. The first phase is due to finish only in 2029, too late on its own to cover the shortfall now visible for 2027 and 2028. Roger Dassen told reporters the company would close the gap by other means: upgrading tools and selling new machine versions built for higher throughput. Together those steps would deliver a significant enhancement to customer capacity. Prices themselves begin rising in 2027, the full effect visible from 2028.

Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, framed what follows. “Durable growth will continue into 2027 and 2028,” he said. After that, “the market will begin asking the question of whether or not there will be any sign of a downturn from 2029 and what impact that has for ASML.”

The Eindhoven ground is still open. So are the order books customers have already started probing out to 2030.