BMW Cuts 2026 Auto Margin Outlook to Breakeven

BMW issued a second 2026 profit warning, lowering its automotive EBIT margin forecast to between -0.5% and +0.5% from 1% to 3% and cutting its return-on-capital outlook to -1% to +1%. The company kept its 2026 automotive free-cash-flow target at more than €2.5 billion. It said a workforce reduction programme is progressing faster than expected, producing higher-than-anticipated Q4 severance payments, and that "the reduction in management positions will be implemented faster than announced." BMW also moved earlier the phaseout of selected older Gen5-battery models while adding production shifts for strong Neue Klasse demand, citing extra near-term costs. Weak demand in China is a factor; the company now expects a moderate decline in annual deliveries after 2.46 million vehicles across BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce in 2025. Shares fell a further 1.9% on Tradegate after Xetra weakness and are down 38% year-to-date, the DAX’s worst performer. JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi called the reaffirmed free-cash-flow target a bright spot. No material factual disputes appear across the rated outlets.