Brazil Living Costs Weaken Lula’s Reelection Bid

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, seeks a fourth term amid cost-of-living pressure despite lower inflation, record-low unemployment and falling inequality. A September Quaest poll found nearly half of Brazilians say the economy worsened over the past year; 19% say it improved. Household debt service excluding mortgages hit a record 26.6% of income in June, per the central bank. Brazil’s benchmark rate is 13.75%, among the highest real rates globally. Food prices fell June–August but remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Polls show Lula statistically tied with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, barred after a coup-attempt conviction. Butcher Kleyton Zacarioto cited declining shop traffic and will not vote for Lula: “Someone who earns a minimum wage has no way to get ahead.” Lula said, “I know it’s still not great, but I guarantee inflation will stay under control.” He announced a 15% welfare increase before the late-October second round and banned online betting from October 6. His campaign launched a “Market of Lies” website and filed a Superior Electoral Court complaint over alleged false price claims. Shopkeepers Conceição Melquiades said “In the end not much is going to change,” and Carlos Alves da Silva called finances “just a matter of taking on debt and scrambling to pay it off the following month.” Bolsonaro proposes tax cuts, transport links, grain storage and fertilizer production; Lula cites farm output growth, food reserves and rural lending. Recent steps have yet to shift polls.