Brazil Runoff Poll Shows Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro Tied

Datafolha released a national presidential poll on Sept. 17, 2026, showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46 percent and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 44 percent in a potential runoff, a difference inside the poll's two-point margin of error. The same survey places Lula at 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 36 percent in the first round. An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg from the same week instead shows Bolsonaro at 47.2 percent and Lula at 46.8 percent, within a one-point margin of error. Excluding blank, null, and undecided votes, AtlasIntel has Bolsonaro at 50.2 percent and Lula at 49.8 percent. Datafolha's figures were unchanged from the previous week. With 13 candidates and the first round set for Oct. 4, 2026, alongside governor and Chamber of Deputies races, a runoff is highly likely. In a recent podcast, Lula said he is not strongly influenced by poll figures and cannot imagine not winning, while acknowledging that the narrowing lead is a serious concern. Former President Jair Bolsonaro received a 27-year prison sentence on charges of crimes against democracy and was barred from holding public office. The surveys disagree on which candidate holds the slim numerical edge but both place the race inside the margin of error.