Carney prepared for 'extreme tail risk' of US military action

Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times he prepared for possible U.S. military action against Canada, describing it as an "extreme tail risk"—a finance term for rare, high-damage events often underestimated. The report, published Wednesday, said Carney was pressed on threats to make Canada a 51st state and suggested he had examined a U.S.-led invasion but declined to discuss details. The Globe and Mail reported in January that, per two senior officials, the Canadian Armed Forces modelled a hypothetical U.S. invasion and responses including tactics similar to those used against Russia and later U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. Defence Minister David McGuinty said analyzing risk scenarios is normal. NDP MP Don Davies told reporters, "I think this is a time that we all have to rally behind our Prime Minister," and said the need to consider the threat signals seriousness. Former foreign affairs minister Peter MacKay said the comments are "heightening the anxiety" between the countries. Andrea Charron cited historical plans including Canada's Defence Scheme No. 1 and U.S. War Plan Red. CONTESTED: no contested claims found in the record.