China copper output growth expected at decades-low 3%

China’s refined copper output is forecast to grow just 3% to 3.4% this year, its slowest pace in decades, as shortages of copper concentrate and scrap constrain smelters and falling sulphuric acid prices further squeeze margins. A tax crackdown on scrap and planned maintenance at several smelters could deepen the slowdown, tightening supply and potentially supporting copper prices. At the same time, weaker Chinese industrial-profit growth and expectations of higher global interest rates have weighed on base metals, while Chinese investment in electricity grids, electric vehicles and renewables continues to underpin demand. Copper prices have also faced pressure in India amid muted spot-market demand, underscoring the competing forces shaping the market.