El Niño pushes Pacific Nino3.4 region to 29.70°C record

Nino3.4 Pacific sea surface temperature reached 29.70C in September, Copernicus reported Monday, October 12, 2026, above peaks of the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino events and before the expected peak. Global average sea surface temperature hit a record 21.05C for September. The world had its second-hottest September at 16.27C, 1.63C above the 1850-1900 average. WMO's October 8 update forecast a December peak. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts show a near-100% likelihood El Nino lasts through February 2027 and it could be one of the strongest since at least 1950. Japan's weather agency said Friday conditions reached the strongest intensity on record, 4C above normal. Copernicus reported the 29.70C mark and has not issued a strongest-ever ranking. Director Carlo Buontempo said the world is in a new run of months above 1.5C likely to last into 2027, and crossing the Paris long-term limit is only a matter of time; how far and how long is still up to us. India's 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% deficit, 759.4mm against 868.6mm, weakest since 2015; the RBI flagged El Nino as an inflation threat on April 8. CONTESTED: Japan calls it strongest on record; Copernicus has not ranked it the strongest ever.