2026 Global Fossil-Fuel Emissions Expected to Fall

Global fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to about 38.2 billion metric tons, the first annual decline since the pandemic-era drop in 2020. Researchers attribute the decline partly to Iran-war disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed prices higher and are expected to cut oil emissions by roughly 1.9%; solar, wind and electric vehicles are also helping meet rising energy demand. Scientists caution that the geopolitical shock may make the drop temporary and that clean-energy growth is not yet sufficient to ensure a sustained fall in fossil-fuel emissions. Rising land-use emissions could bring total CO₂ emissions to 43.3 billion metric tons, above last year’s level. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations continue to rise, and the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is estimated at about 150 billion metric tons—less than four years at current emission rates.