Energy secretary predicts gas prices will fall despite record Labor Day costs

Oil prices have risen above $100 a barrel as the prolonged Iran conflict disrupts Middle Eastern production, shipping and inventories, pushing U.S. gasoline prices to roughly $4.28 a gallon and diesel to nearly $6 nationally, with some regions reporting substantially higher costs. The Energy Information Administration estimates that global oil stocks have fallen by about 400 million barrels this year and has raised its 2026 forecast for Brent crude to about $91 a barrel, while warning that prices could rise further if disruptions persist. Analysts have warned that Brent could exceed $110 or even $120 a barrel if Persian Gulf supply losses deepen, though prices could decline toward 2027 if production and inventories recover. President Donald Trump has said fuel prices are unlikely to fall substantially until after the November midterm elections, when he predicts the war will end and gasoline could eventually fall below $2 a gallon. Critics have questioned why the conflict and price relief cannot be addressed sooner, while higher diesel and jet-fuel costs are raising transportation, food and airfare expenses. The administration is pursuing expanded domestic oil production and refining, regulatory changes, a gasoline waiver, possible Venezuelan oil imports and sanctions targeting entities supporting Iran’s aviation sector as the conflict continues to threaten energy infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.