Diesel shortage may stretch into 2027 as inventories hit record lows

A global diesel shortage linked to wars in Iran and Ukraine, disrupted exports and damaged refining capacity is expected to persist through at least next year and potentially into 2027. Diesel inventories have fallen to historic lows, with U.S. stocks reaching 107.9 million barrels by Sept. 11—the lowest seasonal level since records began in 1982—and the EIA forecasting distillate inventories below 100 million barrels through much of 2027. Storage capacity available for lease in North America and the Caribbean has risen to 13 million barrels, but the increase reflects refiners’ and traders’ difficulty finding fuel to store rather than improved supply. Retail diesel prices in the United States have surpassed $6 a gallon, raising costs for farmers, truckers, manufacturers and other fuel-intensive businesses. Supplies are also tight in Europe and Singapore, and further disruptions to Middle Eastern or Russian exports could prolong the squeeze.