Gold falls to three-week low as Mideast tensions fuel rate-hike bets

Gold prices remained under pressure as inflation worries resurfaced amid rising oil prices tied to renewed U.S.–Iran tensions, with Brent crude approaching $95 a barrel and fears of energy disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets also priced in a significant probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, with estimates ranging around 67% to 70%, as higher crude costs and inflation concerns weigh on gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. In parallel, gold futures pulled back from multi-week highs in some reports, while traders await key data such as payrolls and ADP figures to gauge the monetary outlook. The tension-driven rally in oil prices contributed to a firmer dollar and pressurized gold further, with prices dipping to around $4,304–$4,321 per ounce across several updates, and similar weakness seen in Nigeria where gold traded near high local prices amid the global volatility. Overall, the market remains sensitive to Middle East risk and central-bank policy expectations, keeping gold trading ranges subdued as traders balance inflation, energy, and rate-hike bets.