IEA Expects Oil Surplus as Gulf Exports Recover

The International Energy Agency says recovering Persian Gulf exports are pushing global oil supply above demand for the first time since the Iran war began, with the market expected to return to surplus in the fourth quarter. Supply rose sharply in October, although Gulf exports remained below pre-war levels and attacks on shipping continue to threaten maritime security. The IEA expects a larger surplus in 2027 as production rebounds, while demand remains pressured by disrupted refined-product and LPG exports and high fuel prices. Russian oil production and product exports also increased in October.