IMF-World Bank Meetings Face War, Energy Shock, Debt

Finance officials gather in Bangkok this week for IMF and World Bank annual meetings held outside Washington for the first time in three years, with more than 10,000 travelers expected. The war with Iran, now in its eighth month, closed the Strait of Hormuz and shut off about 20% of world oil. World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters growth held up better than feared at first but pressures are building again; he pointed to the mix of fertilizer prices, energy costs, debt and El Nino—risks experts link to as many as 450,000 heat-related deaths—and said that combination creates its own challenges and calls for careful preparation in the coming months. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned in her curtain-raiser speech, "Winter is coming." The IMF sees 3% global growth in 2026 and may edge 2027 slightly higher. G-7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves; more than 1 billion barrels have already been released mainly from commercial inventories since Feb. 28. Public debt is at its highest level since World War II and is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is skipping the meetings. CONTESTED: Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized Trump's Oct. 9 Russia diesel deal and temporary U.S. sanctions waiver. Iolanda Fresnillo of Eurodad said countries are already cutting expenditures because of high debt payments and IMF conditionality, and that "We fear that this review of conditionality policy is just going to make things worse."