North Carolina Redistricting Shrinks Competitive House Seats

North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District illustrates the decline of competitive House races: Democrat Wiley Nickel narrowly won in 2022, but after Republicans redrew the district to remove Raleigh voters and add rural counties, Republican Brad Knott won by a wide margin in 2024. The broader trend reflects increasing political polarization, less ticket-splitting and the clustering of voters with similar views. A recent partisan redistricting battle, sparked by President Donald Trump, coincided with the number of swing districts dropping from 45 to 37; by comparison, 96 House seats met the modern definition in 1964. As more districts become safe for one party, elections are increasingly decided in primaries by a smaller, more ideologically committed share of voters, which former congressman Nickel argues contributes to dysfunction in Congress.