NRF forecasts 4.2% holiday sales jump to $1.013 trillion

The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.2% in November and December 2026, reaching about $1.013 trillion, up from 3.1% growth and $972 billion last year. The forecast would mark the fastest growth since 2021, though some of the increase reflects higher prices rather than stronger sales volumes. NRF expects consumers to prioritize holiday spending while staying mindful of budgets, but persistent inflation, higher gas prices, borrowing costs and household debt are adding pressure, with effects varying across income groups; retailers including Walmart, Kohl’s and American Eagle have also warned of spending strain. NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, roughly in line with last year, reflecting a cautious approach. A separate Deloitte survey likewise projects higher household holiday spending, driven in part by younger consumers, while suggesting shoppers may shift spending between gifts and activities.