Brazil Runoff Pits Lula Against Bolsonaro Amid Debt Pressures

Brazilian voters are choosing between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a closely contested presidential runoff; polls show a dead heat after Bolsonaro led the first round by more than 2.2 million votes. The election could determine whether Latin America’s largest economy shifts right and moves closer to U.S. President Donald Trump, and Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his imprisoned father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. The campaign has focused on the cost of living, crime, corruption, public finances and security, alongside divisions over welfare and climate policy. The next president will face high public debt, persistent deficits and elevated interest rates, as well as record rural delinquencies and tighter agricultural credit; neither candidate has offered a clear solution to farm debt. Economic discontent is also linked to declining unionization and growth in app-based work, while Lula has accelerated welfare payments. Farm debt has not yet disrupted the coming grain harvest, which is projected to be record-setting.