Poll puts Lula two points ahead of Bolsonaro

A Datafolha poll released Sept. 25, 2026, shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 40% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% ahead of the Oct. 4 election. Neither is near the 50% needed to win in the first round. In a simulated runoff, Lula leads 47% to 45%, inside the two-point margin of error. The poll of 2,002 people on Sept. 22-23 had Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 36% a week earlier, with runoff figures of 46% to 44%. Lula leads among poorer and less-educated voters and in the Northeast; Bolsonaro leads among evangelicals and in the South. The Southeast is a statistical tie. About 80% of respondents called their choice final. A 15% Bolsa Família increase less than three weeks before the vote left recipient support nearly flat. Bolsonaro accused Lula of trying to buy the poor with the rise. Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula. Separate Quaest polling finds close races in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro ahead in Rio, and a modest rise in approval of Lula's government. A U.S.-led group announced coordinated action against transnational criminal organizations in Brazil; Lula's government rejects U.S. terrorist labels for Brazilian groups, while Bolsonaro supported that designation.