Supply Chain Pressures Rise, Adding Inflation Risks

The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 1.28 in September from an upwardly revised 1.20 in August, marking a modest increase. The release did not identify what caused the rise, and the reading remains below May’s 1.81 and well beneath the pandemic-era peak of 4.43 in December 2021. Higher supply-chain costs and delays can add to inflation, making the index relevant as the Federal Reserve works to bring inflation toward its 2% target. Separate manufacturing surveys have pointed to tariff-related supplier delays and other signs of friction, though those reports do not establish the cause of the index’s increase.