Morgan Stanley Sees Up to $17 Billion in Annual Tesla Semi Software Revenue

Tesla is expanding production and ambitions for its all-electric Semi as high diesel prices and interest in lower-cost freight operations create an opening in heavy-duty trucking. The company plans to reveal European specifications and launch details at a transportation trade fair in Germany, while its delayed production timetable indicates that broader volume manufacturing may not begin until 2026. Tesla says the European truck could offer up to 342 miles of range at a 40-tonne gross combination weight and recover about 60% of its range in 30 minutes through its Megacharger network. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that autonomous Semi software could generate roughly $12,000 to $18,000 per truck each month, based on per-mile subscriptions and high commercial utilization. If Tesla deploys 82,000 autonomous Semis by 2040, the firm projects as much as $17 billion in annual software revenue and about $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT, though those estimates depend on regulatory approval, successful autonomous operation and significant fleet adoption.