UK Regular Pay Growth Tops Forecasts as Unemployment Falls

ONS data released Tuesday showed UK regular pay growth excluding bonuses at 3.7% in the three months to August 2026, up from a revised 3.6% in the three months to July and above the 3.6% forecast from economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. Unemployment fell to 4.7% in June-August from 4.9% in May-July, against expectations it would hold steady. Total average weekly earnings including bonuses rose 3.7% year-on-year to GBP 757, slowing from 3.9%. That total-pay reading was the softest annual growth since the three months to November 2020. Private-sector pay growth eased to 3.1% from 3.3%; public-sector pay growth slowed to 6.3% from 6.6%. ONS said vacancies fell by the largest amount since the start of the year, with smaller firms citing higher labor costs as a reason not to recruit. The pound gained a little against the dollar after the release. Coverage is center-rated only: WSJ and MarketScreener framed the figures ahead of a Bank of England meeting and investor expectations of a rate rise next month; Trading Economics led on total and regular pay versus estimates.