US Airfares May Stay High Despite Falling Fuel

Average U.S. domestic fares excluding fees rose from $405 in Q4 2025 to $428 in Q1 2026 and $436 in April-June 2026. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index peaked at $4.88 a gallon in early April, fell to $2.70 in June, then reached $4.53 on Sept. 17 and $4.30 on the cited Friday, nearly twice the 2025 average. August airfares were 23% higher than a year earlier per the Labor Department. Hopper put Thanksgiving domestic round-trips at $402, up 31% year over year, and Christmas at $452, up 23%. "I don't actually care if it stays high. I just need it to stabilise," United CFO Mike Leskinen said at a Sept. 16 investor conference. Brett House said it is not just the level of fuel costs that is a problem or a challenge for airlines; it is also the volatility. Airlines set schedules months ahead and sell seats earlier and cannot raise prices on tickets already sold. United and American signaled flight or growth cuts due to fuel costs. JetBlue raised its Q3 fuel forecast on Sept. 10; prices continued climbing. Global jet fuel averaged about $99 a barrel on Feb. 27 and more than doubled to $209 by early April per IATA. Analysts say uncertainty leaves carriers cautious about cutting fares.