Capehart and Continetti weigh midterm closings and Congress forecasts

PBS NewsHour posted a YouTube video on Oct. 30, 2026, titled “Capehart and Continetti on closing messages and midterm predictions,” in which Matthew Continetti, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, forecast a Democratic House majority of 15 to 20 seats. He said Republicans would hold the Senate “just by their fingernails,” calling a 50/50 chamber “a very probable outcome.”

The segment is part of PBS News Hour Season 2026 Episode 222. It runs 12 minutes 15 seconds. Amna Nawaz hosted Jonathan Capehart and Continetti. The transcript notes that David Brooks was away that night.

Nawaz opened by saying three days remained until Election Day. According to the transcript, she cited the Cook Political Report’s shift that same day of a dozen more House seats toward Democrats. She asked Continetti whether Republicans could hang on in the Senate and how large a House wave he expected.

“Well, I’d say the House is probably going to be 15-to-20 seat majority for the Democrats, and then for the Senate, I do see Republicans holding on, but just by their fingernails. A 50/50 Senate, I think is a very probable outcome,” Continetti said. Capehart refused a matching call. “Look, I’m out of the prediction game,” he said. Continetti needled him on air, the transcript shows.

Capehart then described Democratic operatives who preferred a split result. “I know some Democratic operatives who would love for a 50/50 outcome simply because it will take the 2028 candidates, let them off the hook for whatever Democrats wouldn’t be able to get accomplished if they had both chambers,” he said. He pointed to ticket-splitting in Florida, Texas and Michigan as a wildcard that made him pause on any Senate flip. Continetti replied that RealClearPolitics rated only two toss-ups in Democratic states. “There are two toss-ups, I think, that RealClearPolitics rates in Democratic states, Michigan and Minnesota. And Minnesota seems farther out of reach the closer we get to the election,” he said.

Nawaz turned to closing messages. She said President Trump had campaigned in Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas and Ohio, with visits planned to Iowa and Kansas that weekend. She asked Continetti whether Trump’s closing themes—anti-Muslim rhetoric aimed at Michigan Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, comments on men’s bodies, and oil company profits—were the message Republicans wanted, given that affordability stood as the top issue. Continetti answered: “It’s not the closing message that the Republican political class wants, but is it the message that is necessary to motivate Trump’s supporters to come out?”