Visa Forecasts 4.5% US Holiday Sales Growth

Visa forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% in November and December 2026, the strongest growth since 2021, with much of the increase reflecting higher prices rather than substantially more purchases. Holiday-related prices are expected to climb about 3.4%, while inflation-adjusted spending is projected to grow 1.1%. Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on gifts, up 5.6% from 2025, but many lower- and middle-income shoppers are seeking cheaper options. Although travel and live events top many wish lists, consumers are more likely to prioritize physical gifts; households earning over $200,000 were the only income group to increase holiday airfare bookings and spending. Visa attributes consumers’ continued willingness to spend to income growth and household wealth, despite persistent inflation.