World Bank Forecasts 23% 2026 Commodity Price Rise Amid Supply Shocks

The World Bank forecasts global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, driven by Middle East conflict and supply disruptions, before falling 7% in 2027. Energy prices are projected to jump 32%, with Brent crude averaging about $91 a barrel, while global oil supply is expected to contract 5.2% as depleted inventories leave markets vulnerable to further shocks. Food commodity prices are forecast to increase about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, as disrupted grain shipments, El Niño risks, and higher fuel and fertilizer costs threaten food affordability and security. Metal prices are also expected to rise 25%, reflecting demand from clean energy and other industries. The Bank warns that these pressures could stoke inflation and weaken growth, particularly in vulnerable economies; a more severe combination of disruptions could push oil and food prices above baseline forecasts.