Conservative-Leaning Forecaster Shifts Darline Graham’s Senate Bid To Toss Up

Fox News shifted Republican South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham’s Senate bid Thursday from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up.”

A New York Times/Siena poll from Wednesday found Graham and Democratic South Carolina Senate nominee Annie Andrews tied at 48%, which followed other polls showing the two candidates were neck-and-neck. Fox News’ election forecaster updated its prediction, stating that it is widely agreed the race is “uncomfortably close.”

“We’re updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up,” the forecaster said. “As this week’s Power Rankings reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.”

The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ main campaign arm, spent $5 million on South Carolina in early October to help Graham while she held a slight edge in the polls. The South Carolina Republican led by an average of 2.4 points as of Thursday, according to RealClearPolling.

The Senate Leadership Fund did not spend any money on Graham’s campaign beforehand, indicating that national Republicans were worried about her chances of keeping the seat.

The Trafalgar Group, a conservative-leaning pollster based in Atlanta, Georgia, found Graham leading Andrews 43.4% to 42.3% in a September survey. An InsiderAdvantage poll from Sept. 10 found Graham leading by two points, 45.1% to 43.2%, while an Impact Research survey from mid-August found them tied at 41%.

Graham defeated Republican South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman in the Aug. 25 primary runoff after receiving President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to replace her late brother, former Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died on July 11.

Norman accused Trump of spending millions of dollars “spreading false narratives about why Darline Graham is qualified to be elected to the U.S. Senate,” according to Fox News. He said he would not campaign with Graham in the final week before Election Day.

Graham stumbled through a question about whether Taiwan and the South China Sea were national security issues for the U.S. during an Aug. 19 primary debate.