Elections Forecaster Shifts 19 More House Races In Democrats’ Favor

A major elections forecaster shifted 19 House races in the Democrats’ favor Friday, including Republican-held seats.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted some races from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up” and others from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Several “Toss Up” races in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin were shifted to “Lean Democratic.”

Democrats are now favored to win 220 seats, while Republicans are favored in 198 seats and the remaining 17 are “Toss Ups,” according to Cook Political Report.

Republican Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert’s seat — which President Donald Trump carried by 18 percentage points in 2024 — shifted from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” while Republican Arizona Rep. Eli Crane’s seat — which Trump won by 15 points — shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Boebert faces a competitive reelection bid against Democratic Colorado congressional candidate Eileen Laubacher in Colorado’s heavily Republican Fourth District, where Boebert holds a 51% negative approval rating.

Toss up races in Arizona’s Sixth District and Texas’ 34th District shifted to “Lean Democratic.” Those seats are held by Republican Arizona Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democratic Texas Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. Republican Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans’ race also leans Democratic.

The seats were Republican Reps. Gabe Evans of Colorado and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin are seeking reelection are also leaning Democratic.

The race to oust Democratic Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28th district shifted to “Likely Democratic.” The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House super PAC, canceled approximately $3 million in planned advertisement spending against Cuellar while the incumbent congressman held a 20-point lead in the polls.

Republicans redrew Cuellar’s district in their 2025 round of redistricting to make it more favorable to Republicans. Trump won the redrawn district by ten percentage points in the 2024 election.

Two races in California’s 13th and 21st districts shifted to “Solid Democratic” and “Likely Democratic.”