Elections Forecaster Shifts Two Deep-Red Governor’s Races Toward Democrats

A major elections forecaster shifted the gubernatorial races in deep-red Kansas and Nebraska toward Democrats.

Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas gubernatorial race from “Likely Republican” to a “Toss Up” and Nebraska’s race from “Likely Republican to “Lean Republican.” The forecaster also shifted dozens of congressional races toward Democrats as voters expressed frustration over affordability, the Iran war and corruption.

In Kansas, Republican Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson and Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher are running to replace Democratic Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, who is term limited.

Polls found Masterson leading Holscher by an average of five points as of Wednesday, according to RealClearPolling. Holscher centered her campaign around opposing data center construction, which appears to have resonated with voters.

Polls found that most voters in Kansas oppose data centers, with an annual Kansas Speaks survey finding that 40% of respondents believing they had a negative economic impact on their communities. Masterson supports local control and the construction of data centers in Kansas.

Data centers have caused rises in electricity costs across the U.S. while affordability remained a top concern for voters. Rising costs have caused Republicans to struggle in the polls, particularly as most Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

The Senate race has also helped the gubernatorial race become more competitive. Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall was underperforming in polls and even tied with Democratic Kansas Senate nominee Adam Hamilton in October. Marshall faced scrutiny after he sued over 700 patients for outstanding debt during his time as an OB-GYN, which led to 81 arrests, according to The New York Times.

Kansas remains Republicans’ best chance at flipping a governor’s seat this year, according to Cook Political Report.

Kansas has not had a Democratic senator since 1939. The state Senate has 31 Republicans and nine Democrats, while the state House has 88 Republicans and 37 Democrats, according to Ballotpedia.