Gas Industry Says Heating Costs Will Fall 14% This Winter As Another Forecast Warns Of An Increase

Households that heat with natural gas will spend about 14% less this winter, the industry’s main trade group projected Thursday.

An organization representing state energy assistance directors reached the opposite conclusion Monday. Households heating with natural gas will pay 5.8% more, part of an 8.7% increase across all heating fuels that brings the average winter heating bill to $1,030, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projects in its winter report.

The projection from the American Gas Association (AGA) covers space heating alone. About four percentage points of the decrease come from milder weather and the rest from lower gas costs, according to the outlook the AGA presented on a media call.

“This winter’s story for natural gas consumers is about lower prices and reliable service,” Richard Meyer, vice president of energy markets, analysis and standards at the AGA, said in a statement.

The AGA estimates that the average household will spend $497 on gas for space heating from November through March, against $794 for households heating with electricity, after adjusting for climate and home size.

Several forces are pushing household costs the other way, Jason Hayes, a senior research fellow for energy and environment at the Heritage Foundation, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. A move away from coal-fired electricity leaves natural gas carrying more of the load, and demand keeps climbing from electrification, electric vehicles and data centers.

“Wind and solar cannot supply electricity reliably or affordably, so the pressure on natural gas increases markedly,” Hayes told the DCNF. “Then add in the potential for a cold winter and overall demand can put immense pressure on this single energy source.”

“This is the energy version of the old saying, ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket,’ and why it’s important to maintain other reliable, baseload energy sources such as coal and nuclear in our energy mix,” he added.

Federal policy favors natural gas development while many states restrict it, according to Hayes. Several domestic pipeline projects have been “delayed or halted by state-level restrictions or ongoing green lawfare campaigns,” he said. He named the Jordan Cove and Pacific Connector projects, the Constitution Pipeline and the Northern Access Pipeline.