Heating Oil Bills Could Jump 31% This Winter As Iran War Drives Up Prices

Households that heat with oil are projected to spend nearly $2,300 this winter as crude prices remain above $100 a barrel amid the war with Iran.

Those households are forecast to pay 31.3% more than last winter, CNN reported Monday, citing an analysis by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA). This estimate covers the season from mid-November to mid-March.

Winter heating costs across all fuels are forecast to rise 8.7%, more than double the inflation rate, the NEADA said.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has not yet issued its winter household heating expenditures forecast. The agency will publish those projections for the 2026-2027 season in its Winter Fuels Outlook on Oct. 6, the agency’s press office told the Daily Caller News Foundation. The September Short-Term Energy Outlook does not include them. The agency completed that forecast Sept. 3 and released it Sept. 9.

The September outlook projects quarterly averages of $5.66 a gallon for retail heating oil in the fourth quarter and $4.94 in the first quarter of 2027, the EIA’s press office told the DCNF. The outlook also projects on-highway diesel at $5.55 and $4.93 a gallon over the same quarters. The national average price for diesel reached a record $6.23 a gallon Monday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

The agency told the DCNF it projects heating oil — a distillate fuel like diesel — will average about 12 cents per gallon above the national on-highway diesel price in the third quarter, and expects the two to stay close through winter.

About 4% of U.S. households use heating oil, though roughly 75% of heating oil is used in Northeastern states, Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA, told the DCNF.

Households in the Northeast are projected to spend an average of $2,297 on heating oil and $1,885 on electricity this winter, WISN reported. The region will feel the greatest impact because it has longer winters and many homes rely on heating oil, according to NEADA. Electricity prices there average about 24 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with 16 cents in the Midwest and 15 cents in the South, the outlet reported.

Higher crude prices lead to higher wholesale heating oil prices, WISN reported. Brent crude traded around $72 a barrel before the war with Iran began and now costs more than $100 as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, according to the outlet.

NEADA has asked Congress for an additional $3 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program to cover rising heating oil and electricity costs, CNN reported. The program received $4.1 billion for the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, the outlet reported.