If That Grocery Store Receipt Was Already Making Your Eyes Water … Just Wait

As Americans recoil from price tags at their local supermarket, a meteoric rise in diesel prices threatens to make their checkout total even more shocking.

Pressure on global petroleum markets is increasingly reaching American consumers as conflicts across the Middle East threaten two critical oil-shipping chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, while attacks have also damaged Saudi Arabia’s key route for bypassing Hormuz. The turmoil, which includes the Iran war launched Feb. 28, has driven diesel prices to a nationwide record of $6.00 per gallon.

“Diesel is one of trucking’s largest operating expenses, so an increase of this magnitude creates immediate pressure on motor carriers, who run on tight margins,” American Trucking Association chief advocacy and public affairs officer, Henry Hanscom, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “It also tells us something about the broader economy. When families spend more at the pump, they have less to spend elsewhere, and that can translate into weaker demand for the goods trucks move,”

High diesel prices mean Americans can end up paying more for groceries, fertilizer and other goods moved by the trucking industry, even if they never personally fill up a diesel-powered vehicle, according to an April American Enterprise Institute analysis in April.

Food prices have also continued to climb, rising 2.7% from a year earlier in August, while grocery prices climbed 2.2%, fruits and vegetables jumped 3.2% and nonalcoholic beverages rose 3.7%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

“The 0.7% increase in food-at-home prices in April was most likely due to higher energy prices occurring around the start of the Iran conflict. Since that time, all signs of which I am aware have pointed to retailers and manufacturers constraining prices and potentially absorbing losses or seeing reduced margins,” Richard Volpe, agricultural economics professor at Cal Poly, told the DCNF. “Given that most retailers operate on thin profit margins to begin with (1-2%), it would surprise me not to see food price inflation tick up in the next couple of CPI releases as the high energy prices, driven mostly by crude oil and diesel, increase operating costs at all stages of the supply chain.”

“Most of the important Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, which measure upstream prices, have been pushing higher year to date with little retail price movement. Given the competitive food environment and low consumer sentiment, most food companies are probably hoping to ride this wave of higher energy costs out without increasing their prices,” Volpe said.

Diesel stood at roughly $3.72 per gallon before the Iran war began in February, meaning prices have risen by roughly 60% in a little more than six months, according to the Bureau of Transportation statistics.

The surge follows months of turmoil across global energy markets as the Iran War threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while Houthi attacks have disrupted traffic around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, putting two of the Middle East’s most important oil shipping corridors under pressure.

Diesel prices hit a record $5.85 per gallon in early September, surpassing the previous prices set in 2022 as the Iran War continued to disrupt global fuel supplies and shipping through the Persian Gulf.

While most Americans do not drive diesel vehicles, they still rely on the fuel through the goods they buy. Trucks moved 11.27 billion tons of freight in 2024, accounting for 72.7% of domestic freight tonnage, according to the American Trucking Associations.

“The price of Diesel will be the inflationary problem for the Trump administration that the Fed nor the U.S. Treasury can impact,” Energy analyst Stuart Turley, president and CEO of the Sandstone Group and host of the Energy News Beat podcast. “The disruption in the oil markets will take 6 to 8 months to balance out.  We are now at a point in time where there is only two ways to lower gasoline or diesel prices. 1: more refineries and those take decades to approve and build, or 2: demand destruction. Either one of those two options will allow refineries to not pay the high physical cost of delivery. “

Food costs can face pressure from both ends of the supply chain. Farmers use diesel to operate agricultural equipment, while natural gas is a major input in fertilizer production, according to the Department of Agriculture (USDA). Once food leaves the farm, trucks and other freight transportation move agricultural products through the supply chain and ultimately to consumers.

The Iran war has also disrupted fertilizer markets; nearly one-third of seaborne fertilizer production comes from the Gulf and transits through the Strait of Hormuz, while urea, ammonia and sulfur are frequently sourced from Iran and other Gulf states because of the region’s abundant natural gas resources.

American farmers are also getting squeezed by soaring fertilizer costs. U.S. farm spending on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners is projected to jump 15.3% in 2026, or roughly $5.3 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Nitrogen fertilizer has been particularly exposed to the turmoil surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Anhydrous ammonia averaged $828 per ton in the six months before the conflict but had climbed to $1,123 per ton by April 17, according to an analysis citing USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data,  an increase of nearly 36%.

“Tanker daily rates just crossed $800K per day and insurance is at an all-time high, that impacts physical delivery prices to refineries. The diesel crack spread is around the $200 per barrel of diesel mark. None of this balances before the midterm elections, and will roll in to Q1 2027,” Turley said.

The Strait’s importance stretches well beyond Iran. Roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption moved through the Strait in the first half of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Families may also cut back on eating out and other non-essential purchases as higher fuel costs ripple through household budgets, University of Cincinnati economics professor Debashis Pal told UC News in March, when diesel prices had climbed to roughly $5.06 per gallon.