Pentagon Cuba Planning Expands As Army Reserve Surveys Troops For Possible Deployment

The U.S. Army Reserve is assessing whether it can provide additional troops to U.S. Southern Command within three to four months as American military planners continue examining possible operations involving Cuba.

Army Reserve headquarters asked subordinate commands to identify the possible availability of six types of formations that could fall under SOUTHCOM authority and may be needed within 90 to 120 days, CBS News reported Friday, citing an internal Army message and multiple U.S. officials. The document does not mention Cuba or identify a specific operation, but multiple U.S. officials told the outlet the request is connected to continued military planning focused on the communist-controlled island.

“This sounds like planning for an invasion and occupation of Cuba, rather than a leadership decapitation or limited air strikes,” William LeoGrande, professor and dean emeritus of American University’s School of Public Affairs, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The 90- to 120-day timeframe suggests something more imminent than normal contingency planning. An invasion would be a risky proposition. The Cuban armed forces are well-trained, disciplined, and loyal to the regime.”

“Judging by the type of personnel they are requesting, it looks like an exercise for a potential humanitarian intervention,” Sebastian A. Arcos, director of the Institute for Cuban Studies at Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs, told the DCNF. “It could be a serious exercise, or just a way to ratchet pressure on the Cuban regime.”

The formations include a combat sustainment support battalion responsible for coordinating transportation, maintenance, fuel and supplies, along with an engineer battalion and an expeditionary sustainment command, CBS News reported, citing the Army message.

“This multi-pronged military mobilization could be setting the stage for a med- to long-term military operation, which would have both military and peacekeeping and humanitarian components,” Daniel Pedreira, a visiting assistant teaching professor in Florida International University’s Department of Politics and International Relations, told the DCNF. “The increase in additional military forces in the region could point to possible action in Cuba given President Trump’s repeated statements, as recently as at the UNGA, about regime change in Cuba. The Pentagon is responding in kind to the administration’s statements.”

“If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I would be concerned at least a little bit,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during a news conference on Jan. 3.

If the United States were to declare war on Cuba, the Cuban military could easily retaliate by striking Florida with suicide drones similar to the Iranian Shahed-136 or the Russian Geran-2.

The island nation has allegedly received more than 300 of the drones, Axios reported in May, citing classified intelligence reports.

A Russian Ilyushin Il-76 military cargo aircraft touched down in Cuba on Feb. 2, similar to what happened in Venezuela before the U.S. strikes took place, signaling that Moscow could be helping the communist island nation prepare for a potential American strike, according to Defense News. A cargo aircraft of this size could easily have delivered hundreds of these drones to Cuba, given how small they can be made for shipping and storage.

“They [Cuba] have had this alliance with Russia and China and even North Korea and Iran,” national security expert Brandon Weichert previously told the DCNF. “They have been given access to the systems of those countries. It is very likely that on some level, they have some element of those weapons.”

“The U.S. has maintained publicly for some time that military options, among other things, are on the table as the Administration seeks change in Cuba,” Evan Ellis, Latin America research professor at the U.S. Army War College, speaking independently from the Army, told the DCNF. “It is normal for forces to be prepared for contingencies that create options for the President, but not every contingency that the military prepares for necessarily means that the President will choose that course of action.”

Cuba falls within SOUTHCOM’s area of responsibility, which encompasses Central and South America and most of the Caribbean, according to according to the command. It is responsible for contingency planning, military operations and security cooperation throughout the region.

When asked for comment, the White House referred the DCNF to SOUTHCOM. The U.S. Army Reserve did not respond to a request for comment.

“U.S. Southern Command continuously coordinates with the Joint Force to assess a range of potential requirements across its AOR in support of assigned missions,” Steven McLoud, a media relations officer in U.S. Southern Command’s Public Affairs Office, told the DCNF. “Last month SOUTHCOM published Gen. Donovan’s four imperatives focusing on enhancing the command’s warfighting capabilities, combating narco-terrorist networks, and strengthening collaboration with military partners across the hemisphere. Two recent initiatives, the activation of JTF-WHEM and the establishment of the SOUTHCOM Autonomous Warfare Command (SAWC), demonstrate how Gen. Donovan is putting that vision into practice.”

Army officials are also examining the availability of a medical brigade, a forward surgical unit capable of providing emergency trauma care and a military police brigade whose missions can include security and detention operations, CBS News reported, citing the document.

“The Trump administration has been building a case around Cuba’s asymmetric threat to US national security and the stability of the Western Hemisphere,” Arcos told the DCNF. “None of these objectives can be achieved without regime change in Havana. That is the strategic objective.”

The message does not say how many troops could ultimately be required, where they would deploy or what mission they would support, and there is no indication that any unit has received deployment orders, according to CBS News.

“They would be quickly overwhelmed, but U.S. forces would almost certainly sustain far more casualties than they have in Iran,” LeoGrande told the DCNF. “Moreover, Cuban military doctrine calls for sustained guerrilla warfare to make occupation too costly to sustain, so there is a real risk that occupied Cuba could become a quagmire similar to Iraq. CSIS estimates that occupation would require upwards of 100,000 U.S. troops. With domestic opposition to the war in Iran growing, it is hard to imagine that a prolonged occupation of Cuba would be sustainable politically.”

The latest request follows months of reported military preparations surrounding Cuba. U.S. forces earlier conducted reconnaissance of the seafloor and maritime approaches surrounding the island, while air components were placed on heightened readiness and told to pre-stage personnel for a possible deployment that ultimately did not occur, CBS News reported, citing multiple U.S. military personnel.

“As in any military operation, U.S. service members run the risk of losing life and limb,” Pedreira told the DCNF. “Yet, the U.S. military relies on advanced technology today that gives it the upper hand when dealing with a significantly inferior military force like Cuba’s.”

“If the U.S. chose to occupy the island, the danger to U.S. forces on the ground would obviously be higher, particularly given Cuba’s doctrine which emphasizes a decentralized guerrilla resistance,” Ellis told the DCNF.

Pentagon planners had also examined options including an Army-led air assault involving thousands of soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division, CBS News reported in July, citing multiple U.S. officials familiar with the discussions. Those officials stressed that the planning did not mean President Donald Trump or the Pentagon had decided to launch an operation.

U.S. intelligence officials were separately analyzing how Havana could respond to American military action as early as May, while work had begun on developing military options for Trump, CBS News reported in May, citing two anonymous U.S. officials.

“Most experts agree that the current regime in Havana will not give up power without some sort of US military pressure, which, by the way, might be successful without the commitment of significant ground forces,” Arcos told the DCNF. “It is an established fact that the Cuban military cannot offer any significant resistance to a US military action due to lack of firepower, technology, and low morale, and the possibility of an organized urban or irregular resistance has been vastly exaggerated by the regime’s propaganda machine. The available data indicates that an overwhelming part of the Cuban population does not support the regime and is willing to support a US action.”

The planning is unfolding as Washington publicly increases pressure on Havana. Trump told the United Nations General Assembly Tuesday that “freedom will be coming to Cuba,” while describing the Cuban government as aligned with communist networks and other groups in the United States, according to the White House.

“The Don-roe doctrine that the U.S. must be dominant in the Western Hemisphere, and Marco Rubio’s special interest in regime change in Cuba could be sufficient motivation for the president to take the risk, especially since the campaign of economic pressure has failed to dislodge the Cuban regime,” LeoGrande told the DCNF.

The administration’s concerns also extend to foreign powers operating in the Western Hemisphere. Russia likely wants to expand its existing security and diplomatic relationships with Cuba and Nicaragua, while China, Russia and Iran are seeking continued economic, political and military engagement throughout Latin America, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“I think that Marco Rubio would love nothing more than to initiate military action against Cuba,” Weichert previously told the DCNF.