Prediction Markets, Casinos In Lobbying Duel Over Industries Rife With Consumer Debt, Addiction Issues

Prediction markets quarreled with casinos as both increased lobbying spending on Congress ahead of the midterm elections.

Kalshi, Polymarket, casino and gaming sectors spent money on lobbying in an attempt to win  lawmakers’ support while prediction markets came under scrutiny over risks involving insider trading and unlicensed state gambling. The industry spent more on lobbying while gambling addiction issues have been on the rise, particularly among young men.

In a letter to Congress in January, the gambling industry argued that prediction markets are “indistinguishable from legal sports betting” and should be subject to gambling laws and taxes. The American Gaming Association (AGA), a gambling industry lobbying group, argued its state tax revenue declined because bets were made on prediction markets, while the predication markets argued its markets are not subject to gambling taxes.

Users of prediction markets have commonly found themselves in debt, and became clinically addicted to betting and gambling online.

Online gambling addiction rates are much higher than in-person gambling, as roughly 16% of internet gamblers have been classified as problem gamblers, according to the National Library of Medicine. About 10% of U.S. men aged 18 to 30 showed behavior indicating a gambling addiction, according to Hopkins Bloomberg Public Health.

Fifty-one percent of prediction market users have borrowed funds to place bets, according to a study by BadCredit.org. The study found that 79% of users reported losses over the past year.

Kalshi’s lobbying totaled about $1.8 million in the first half of 2026, as the company spent $990,000 and the rest was spent through outside firms, according to CNBC. Kalshi spent $1 million total on lobbying in all of 2025, according to CNBC. That was Kalshi’s highest six-month lobbying total on record.

Lobbying firm Advocus Partners spent $180,000 on behalf of Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, in that same timeframe, according to CNBC.

Kalshi and Polymarket were fighting U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) rules, state bans and sports and election contract limits.