Survey Spells Bad News For Anti-Gunners

Americans own tens of millions of modern semiautomatic firearms that are the subject of a pending Supreme Court case, a Georgetown University professor estimated in a study released in August.

The study, which came five years after an initial effort in 2021, includes new data on the popularity of modern semiautomatic firearms that could influence Viramontes v. Cook County, a lawsuit seeking to invalidate a local ban on so-called “assault weapons” first passed by the Illinois county in 2006. The data suggests that these modern firearms could be found to be “in common use,” making them protected under the Supreme Court’s Second Amendment precedents in Heller and Bruen.

William English, an assistant professor of strategy, economics, ethics, and public policy at Georgetown University, surveyed 51,398 U.S. residents aged 18 and older for the study, identifying 16,688 gun owners who provided detailed responses about firearm ownership and use, including the use of firearms for self-defense. English estimated that at least 88 million Americans own over 460 million firearms, including 60 million modern semiautomatic rifles and 539 million detachable magazines holding more than 10 rounds.

“In general, firearms ownership continued to diversify, both with regard to minorities and women in particular,” English told the Daily Caller News Foundation when reached for comment.

In May, Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed a ban on modern semiautomatic firearms, which drew immediate legal challenges from pro-Second Amendment organizations. Prior to the law taking effect, purchasers raced to buy the banned firearms.

The law was later blocked by judges, and the case was on hold pending the Supreme Court’s decision in Viramontes. English’s study also provided data on how many people owned modern semiautomatic firearms, providing a figure higher than previously public estimates.

“25.0% of gun owners currently own an AR-15 type rifle, 12.9% currently own other similarly styled semi-automatic rifles, and 30.0% – approximately 26.4 million adults – currently own at least one firearm in one of these two categories, with approximately 40 million AR-15 type rifles and 20 million other similarly styled rifles owned in total,” the study says.

According to estimates released by the National Shooting Sports Foundation in January, there were over 32 million “modern sporting rifles” in circulation, with 2.8 million sold in 2020 alone. Additionally, a New York Times article published on May 13 noted that both the AR-15 semiautomatic rifle—which resembles the military’s M16 and M4 select-fire weapons—and semiautomatic rifles featuring cosmetic additions that mimic fully automatic AK-47s remain popular firearms owned by millions of civilians.

One prominent researcher into the effects of crime said the results would likely be cited in the Supreme Court’s decision on the case, which is expected to be released in June 2027 following oral arguments on Dec. 2.