RSLC warns Republicans may lose 2028 redistricting fight

The Money Gap in State Races

The Republican State Leadership Committee warns that Republicans risk losing the 2028 redistricting battle before it even starts. The group says Democrats will outspend them by almost three-to-one in state legislative races this year. A finance memo titled “Battle Beneath the Ballot” was shared with the Washington Examiner. It reports that four major Democratic groups plan to spend more than $134 million combined.

These groups include the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the LCV Victory Fund. They have pledged to spend more than $50 million each on their own. The RSLC has committed more than $50 million to its efforts, but the gap remains huge. The memo states that this spending disparity could create a permanent Democratic majority in the House.

“This flood of national liberal dollars into state legislative races should concern everyone who does not want to see a permanent Democratic House majority,” the memo says. Republicans hold a massive $400 million war chest in MAGA Inc., but that cash is sitting in the bank. The party leadership plans to use those funds for congressional and gubernatorial races instead of state districts.

Frustration Among GOP Strategists

There is growing anxiety that the big money from Trump allies will arrive too late to help. House and Senate majorities are expected to be decided by very narrow margins this November. One GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner that there is significant frustration within the party circles. Another strategist agreed that people are annoyed because the money has not been released yet.

“There’s a lot of frustration in the Republican political circles,” one GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner. Some fear that spending after Labor Day will be too late to change polling numbers. Democrats currently hold a six-point lead over Republicans in generic congressional ballot polling. This lead exists despite the GOP having a multimillion-dollar financial advantage over Democrats.

Other strategists defend the delay, saying the electoral map changes quickly. They argue that the group is saving money to make significant buys when they are most effective. Vice President JD Vance recently held a small rally in Michigan for the PAC. The PAC’s nonprofit arm also reserved $1 million for national television ads starting tomorrow.

The Fight for State Control

The memo explains that the battle for Congress really begins in state legislative districts. State legislators control the redrawing of district lines every ten years after the census. Republicans need to win specific seats now to ensure the best possible map for 2028. In Michigan, Republicans have a strong chance to reclaim the state Senate from Democrats. Democrats currently hold a narrow 20-18 majority in that chamber.

Specific districts in Michigan will likely determine who controls the entire state legislature. According to the memo, a mere few seats might significantly impact House districts. The RSLC urges donors to invest at the state level to secure the battlefield. They say the fight for Congress begins in state legislative districts, not in congressional campaigns.

“If we are serious about preventing a permanent Democratic House majority, we must recognize that the fight for Congress begins in state legislative districts, not in congressional campaigns,” the memo says. The next big test will come after the 2030 census when all 50 states redraw their districts. The current spending gap could lock in Democratic advantages for the next decade.

The upcoming midterm convention in Dallas aims to energize the base for the November vote. It is being billed as a “Trumpapalooza” to help hold onto the House and shore up the Senate. However, the warning from the RSLC suggests that national rallies cannot fix local spending deficits. The money must be spent where the maps are drawn, or the results will be lost forever.