The November race to serve as New Jersey’s next governor is in a dead heat, according to new polling.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released Thursday found that Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli and his opponent, Democratic New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill, both captured 43% of the vote each with 11% of respondents undecided. Sherrill’s eroding lead in the final weeks of the race could give Ciattarelli momentum as he looks to pull off an upset victory in a state which former Vice President Kamala Harris won by six points in 2024.
“The first Emerson College general election survey of New Jersey’s 2025 election for Governor reveals a tightly contested race in the Garden State,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in an accompanying release of the poll.
A Rutgers-Eagleton survey released in late August found Sherrill with a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli.
Sherrill, who is serving in her fourth term in the House of Representatives, has opposed nearly all legislation backed by President Donald Trump since January. She has been dogged with questions over increasing her net worth while in office and support for Democratic New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, who holds a 44% disapproval rating with just 35% of respondents approving of his job performance.
Ciattarelli has secured growing support for his campaign in the final stretch of the race. The GOP nominee won the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police, the state’s second-largest police union, on Tuesday. The group notably endorsed Sherrill in 2024 during her run for a fourth House term.
Trump, who endorsed Ciattarelli in May, touted the survey’s results on Thursday morning in a post on Truth Social.
“Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today,” Trump wrote. “He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!!”
The survey of 935 likely or very likely New Jersey voters was conducted between Sept. 22-23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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