The odds that President Donald Trump will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize are pretty good, U.K. bookmaker William Hill.
The firm made its prediction even though nominees have not been officially confirmed, per Mediaite. The firm put Trump’s odds of winning at 3/1 and said the president was “overlooked” in 2025.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee have not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we make Trump the leading contender to take this year’s award,” William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said.
“Trump was overlooked by the committee last year in favour of Venezuelan politician Maria Corina Machado, but we now price the U.S. President at 3/1 to claim the 2026 prize – a 25% chance,” he added. “That is a longer price than we quoted late last year, when we rated Trump’s chances at 55%.”
The Nobel Peace Prize shortlist stays confidential under the committee’s rules. Hundreds of nominations are submitted each year by eligible figures including lawmakers, academics and previous laureates from around the world.
Machado was announced as the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize in October for “her tireless work promoting democratic rights” in Venezuela and “for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”
Trump and MAGA supporters pushed for Trump to receive the award last year.
They cited the work he’s done during his second term as president, including brokering a ceasefire in Gaza.
The nominations were closed before Trump took office.
Machado dedicated her prize to Trump and later presented him with her award.
Trump has claimed credit for ending “seven wars” in the time since his second administration started.
He has since launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on Feb. 28.
On Jan. 3, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Operation Absolute Resolve. The pair face federal charges regarding narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons offenses.
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner is expected to be announced in October.
