Iran’s oil industry is facing mounting pressure as storage capacity tightens amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about long-term damage to the country’s most important economic sector.
Large supertankers have been observed clustered near Kharg Island, a key export hub responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil shipments, according to satellite imagery reported by Bloomberg.
With limited access to international shipping routes, analysts say many of the vessels are now being used as makeshift floating storage facilities rather than moving cargo to buyers abroad.
Iran has continued attempts to send tankers through contested waters, but maritime tracking data indicate several ships have recently been turned back.
In the past week alone, six tankers were forced to reverse course.
President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran is approaching a critical deadline as storage space runs out, warning the country has only days before reaching maximum capacity while producing roughly 2 million barrels of oil per day during the conflict period.
“If the Iranians have to shut down oil and gas production due to a lack of storage capacity, there will be permanent damage to the productivity of the oil fields,” said Derek Reisfield, Co-Founder of Marketwatch and a former McKinsey consultant.
“The damage will be irreversible,” he added. “The loss in capacity could easily be half a million barrels in daily production.”
Independent energy analysts estimate Iran may have only weeks before onshore storage facilities are filled.
The Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute told The New York Post that the system could reach capacity as soon as April 29, while other firms, including Energy Aspects and FGE NextantECA, place remaining storage at roughly 122 million barrels.
Experts warn that halting production is not a simple solution, as shutting down oil fields can cause long-term technical damage.
“When you shut down production across an entire oil field, you will get water intrusion, chemical instability, which can cause things like clay swelling,” Reisfield explained.
“To regenerate production, you will have to spend money.”
Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bashesh Ast Ardastani also cautioned that restarting operations after a shutdown would come at a steep cost.
“We must do something about this maritime siege, because if we are forced to shut down our oil wells, we will need billions of dollars to restart them,” he said, according to an Iran International translation.
“Shutting down our oil wells is not as simple as turning off a water tap,” he added.
Industry analysts say Iran’s oil infrastructure is already strained by years of underinvestment, and the state’s ability to recover production quickly is limited.
Some estimates place recovery rates at around 25% after shutdowns.
As storage tightens, Iran has reportedly begun leaning more heavily on its own fleet for temporary storage, including the recent reactivation of a retired supertanker near Kharg Island.
The situation has also become part of broader geopolitical pressure, with Trump framing the storage constraints as leverage in urging Tehran to return to negotiations.
“When you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them — they have no ships because of the blockade — what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth,” Trump said on Fox News.
“It’s something that happens where it just explodes. And they say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”
A prolonged disruption could also have global consequences, with analysts warning of rising fuel prices as supply chains remain strained by millions of barrels of disrupted output worldwide.
